Abstract Confusions

Complexity is not a cause of confusion. It is a result of it.

Chances for Slumdog Millionaire to win Oscar

Let me not get into the bitter fight of what does slumdog millionaire portraits India to the world. Personally, I think it could have been better. But looking at the brighter side of it. Slumdog millionaire got nominated for ten oscars. It has created lot of curiosity and animosity.  As the Oscar day nears, I asked myself, What are the chances for Slumdog Millionaire to win Oscar? What are the odds in favour and against? We shall analyse it here.

Slumdog Millionaire - Movie poster

Bare math

If you stick to bare mathematics, and do some number crunching to see what is the chance for slumdog millionaire to win oscars. You could see, it is just below one fourth, i.e., 23%. The movie got ten nominations out of total 43. This assumes the events are equally likely to happen. Like, drawing a ball from bag, un-baised. But, this is far from reality.

Weighted Average – Category Wise

Out of nine categories the movie nominated for, in best original music alone it got two nominations, in this categary alone the chances for Slumdog Millionaire to win Oscars is two out of three, i.e., 67%. Which compared to the other eight categories, one out of five. i.e., 20%, is higher. So, chances are there for A. R. Rahman to win oscar.

Going by the records so far

And if want to go by the records so far, Slumdog Millionaire had won seven BAFTA awards. It also won four Golden Globe awards. It has won critics award too. Rotten tomatoes has given a rating of 94%, which is by its standards – remarkable. All of these are good indicators. And again just indicators alone. Lets wait till this Oscar night and see who gets what. After all awards are not decided and given mathematically.


5 responses to “Chances for Slumdog Millionaire to win Oscar

  1. Vijayendran February 19, 2009 at 9:31 AM

    Let me tewll this straightaway. Neither does SM deserve such nominations nor does Rehman. I m not a critic. Just some plain facts. Pitted against some heavyweights like Milk, Wrestler, Frost/Nixon, Reader, Button etc., i find it a weakling, favoured by bookies for reasons obvious. Mathematics apart, i dont find it getting more than 4 awards. The performances were pretty okay ( the child actors rocked though !). But the ending, was something that i wasn’t over eager about. Stereotyped. Rehman does a Sorcese here ;). This is certainly not his best work, and plenty will agree. But, as a true patriot, i hope he wins.

  2. SREE GURUPARAN February 19, 2009 at 6:04 PM

    True. Caught in this complex feelings, one side people are angry the way India is portrayed and on the other side happiness for getting ten nominations for Oscar. Certainly this is not A. R. Rahman’s best music, perhaps for the west this might sound be!

    But if you google, you can see what are the real chances are.. People are crazy I suppose about this seemingly worthless movie.

  3. aspestoro April 15, 2009 at 9:28 PM

    mm. really like it 🙂

  4. Pingback: Read More

  5. Pingback: Tamil Movies List 2009 – The Good, Bad and Ugly « Abstract Confusions

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